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June 7, 2011


Prediction: Facebook Stock > Google Stock by 2018

  • Facebook IPOs in 2012.
  • Facebook dominates your entire Internet experience by utilizing your social graph
  • Facebook eventually “cracks the revenue code” like Google did with AdWords & AdSense
  • Google slowly dies (unless they acquire Facebook)
  • Search Engine Optimization (SEO) dies and it becomes all about Social Graph Optimization (SGO) and News Feed Optimization (NFO)

Back in 2005 (a year after joining Facebook when I was a student at Virginia Tech), I was telling people that Facebook would be a bigger and more powerful company than Google.  People laughed at me and called me insane.  But it was just so obvious to see how many college students were completely addicted to a website – I have never seen such usage and engagement ever before (and I still haven’t seen a page more addicting to the common person than Facebook).  Google is probably the biggest competitor in that sense, but people use it for 10 seconds then they’re off after clicking the first couple of results.  Then maybe some porn websites can rank up their in terms of traffic and addiction levels, but that’s limited in terms of audience, morality, and there’s only so much money to be made there.

Anyway, I’m kicking myself I didn’t actually document my claims in writing way back then, because people still don’t believe I could see Facebook being such a big deal – but it was so crystal clear.

I don’t know exactly how Facebook is going to “crack the revenue code”, but they have so much time, money, and power – they’ll eventually figure it out.  Whether it’s true social shopping with Facebook Commerce (fCommerce, the new eCommerce) or it’s Facebook destroying Google and all other search engines by totally killing off all SEO practices and moving the search focus relevancy to your specific tastes and likes compounded and further enhanced by your friends’ web history, likes/dislikes, and recommendations.

I’m looking forward to it.  I just wish Facebook IPO’d back in 2007-2008 because I would have plowed my entire life savings into them.  Even with the crazy potential I believe they have in their future, I’m worried about their IPO because I’m afraid there isn’t enough money in the world for a Facebook IPO.

1 Comment Post a comment
    Jun 11 2011

    all you facebook dumbos should learn to THINK about privacy. I predict something completely different: after people learned that they really have to protect their privacy to protect their freedom and basic human rights from dictatorship companies like facebook will be burned by angry survivors of world war 3. facebook is an technological failure, privacy and internet can only work without companies.


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